The Senate Is Back, Reconciliation Work Continues in House Committees, Talk of Addressing the Filibuster Resurfaces
By Jason Pye - Director, Rule of Law Initiatives
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
Hey! We’re back: I hope everyone had a restful August and are recharged for the insanity that’s coming. I took some time during the recess to do some long-neglected things around my house. I also spent a ton of time with my guitars. But, folks, it’s going to be a very busy, possibly even chaotic, September.
Nominees, nominees, nominees: The Senate returns today at 3:00 pm to resume consideration of the nomination of James Richard Kvall to serve as the Under Secretary of Education. A vote on the cloture motion is expected around 5:30 pm. Before adjourning for the recess, Leader Schumer also filed cloture on the nominations of David G. Estudillo to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, Angel Kelley to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, and Veronica S. Rossman to serve as a judge on the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. It’s also worth noting that Schumer filed cloture on the For the People Act, S. 2093 (this is the same bill as H.R. 1), after the Senate voted to discharge it from committee. It’s possible that the For the People Act could come up this week, perhaps as early as today, but don’t expect it to move considering that Democrats don’t have the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture. Democrats tried to move the bill in June but failed.
One quick note about the filibuster: Rolling Stone reported over the weekend that President Biden has told Leader Schumer that he’s ready to lobbying moderate Democrats on addressing the filibuster. What that means isn’t clear, but it could mean anything from allowing only talking filibusters to lowering the threshold for cloture down from the current 60 votes to even eliminating it entirely.
White House pulls ATF nominee: The White House has withdrawn the nomination of David Chipman to serve as the director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF). Chipman ran into strong Republican opposition over his views on guns and gun control. His nomination wasn’t reported favorably by the Senate Judiciary Committee. Ultimately, it was a handful of Democratic senators, including Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT), who forced the White House’s hand.
Senate committee schedule: Below are some Senate committee hearings that may be of interest. The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here.
Examining the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Foreign Relations, Tuesday at 10:00 am)
Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Tuesday at 10:00 am)
Nominations Hearing (Judiciary, Tuesday at 10:00 am)
Nominations of Tovah R. Calderon to be an Associate Judge, District of Columbia Court of Appeals, and Kenia S. Lopez, Rupa R. Puttagunta, and Sean C. Staples to be Associate Judges, Superior Court of the District of Columbia (Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Tuesday at 2:30 pm)
Executive Business Meeting (Judiciary, Wednesday at 9:45 am)
Business Meeting and Hearing on EPA Nominees (Environment and Public Works, Wednesday at 9:30 am)
Milk Pricing: Areas for Improvement and Reform (Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, Poultry, Local Food Systems, and Food Safety and Security; Wednesday at 9:30 am)
Executive Session (Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Dereliction of Duty: Examining the Inspector General’s Report on the FBI’s Handling of the Larry Nassar Investigation (Judiciary, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Nominations Hearing (Foreign Relations, Wednesday at 10:30 am and 2:30 pm)
If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Why September is going to be so busy: Well, where do I even begin? Over the next few weeks, expect Congress to consider legislation related to budget reconciliation, the debt limit, the National Defense Authorization Act, and a continuing resolution (CR) ahead of the end of FY 2021. Although the Senate is back this week, the House doesn’t come back until next week, so there’s going to be a tight window. Granted, the most important things are the CR and the debt limit. NDAA is also important, but there’s next to no way that gets done before September 30 considering that both chambers have to pass their own versions and then resolve their differences in conference.
Another round of budget reconciliation: Quite a lot has happened since the last edition of this newsletter. The Senate passed a budget resolution, S.Con.Res. 14, that includes budget reconciliation instructions for several committees to produce recommendations. The House came back for a couple of days, with a little drama from moderate Democrats, during the recess in August to approve the budget resolution. Budget reconciliation is a fast-track process that bypasses the filibuster in the Senate for measures related to mandatory spending, revenue, and the debt limit. (It’s very nuanced and complicated, but this is the easiest way to describe it.) The instructions allow for the recommendations, in total, to produce a budget deficit of up to $3.5 trillion. Over in the House, committees are already at work on the recommendations. Ways and Means has already come up with substantial tax increases as part of the package. Committee work on the reconciliation package will continue this week, and we’ll note those meetings in the committee section.
But legislatin’ ain’t easy: With extraordinarily narrow margins in both chambers, there really isn’t much room for error for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) has already gone on record in opposition to what she called a “rushed” bill. Sens. Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) have said that they’ll oppose a $3.5 trillion bill. Manchin has floated a $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion bill, which was rejected by Schumer. The problem is that progressives want $3.5 trillion. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) called $3.5 trillion “the floor” after Manchin’s comments. The thing is, Democrats can’t get anything passed without Manchin and Sinema, and I don’t think a pressure campaign in very red West Virginia is going to work. Pelosi can lose only three more votes in the House. Just the same, there likely isn’t enough progressive support for a smaller bill. But never count Pelosi out; the budget resolution was in trouble for about five minutes, and she managed to come up with a sneaky way to get moderate Democrats on board. This is going to be really interesting to watch unfold.
On the debt limit: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote last week in a letter to Speaker Pelosi that “extraordinary measures” that have been employed to meet the federal government’s obligations without busting the debt limit will be exhausted “during the month of October.” Section 301 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 suspended the debt limit through July 31, 2021; since then, Treasury has been using these extraordinary measures, which include, as Yellen wrote, “a suspension of certain investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, and the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees' Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.” Congress will either have to increase the statutory debt limit or suspend it for another specific period of time; otherwise, Treasury will default on those obligations, which will likely hit the United States’ credit rating and lead to higher interest rates.
The House is in a committee work week: The House will return on Monday, September 20; however, there is committee activity this week. Below are some House committee hearings that may be of interest. The full House committee schedule for the week can be found here.
Markup of legislative proposals to comply with the reconciliation directive included in section 2002 of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2022 (Judiciary, Monday at 10:00 am)
Markup of the Build Back Better Act (Energy and Commerce, Monday at 11:00 am)
Markup of Various Measures (Financial Services, Monday at 12:00 pm)
Markup of Legislative proposals to comply with the reconciliation directive included in section 2002 of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2022, S. Con. Res. 14 (Veterans’ Affairs, Monday at 2:00 pm)
Markup of Legislative proposals to comply with the reconciliation directive included in section 2002 of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2022, S. Con. Res. 14. (Ways and Means, Tuesday at 9:00 am)
Markup of Legislative proposals to comply with the reconciliation directive included in section 2002 of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2022, S. Con. Res. 14 and other matters cleared for consideration. (Transportation and Infrastructure, Tuesday at 10:00 am)
National Small Business Week: Celebrating our Main Street Champions (Small Business, Tuesday at 11:00 am)
If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Sigh...the fencing is coming back: Several weeks ago, I walked around the Capitol complex during the evening. The fencing had been removed, and you could walk relatively close to the Capitol Building. Well, there’s a “rally” planned in Washington on September 18 in support of the people who were arrested and charged for their involvement in the violent mob that attacked the Capitol on January 6. Naturally, the Capitol Police are concerned, so the fencing that surrounded the Capitol until July will return.
Deficit watch: With only one month remaining in FY 2021, the budget deficit is $2.7 trillion. That’s less than the same point last year by $295 billion. Before things went off the rails, way back in March 2020, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the budget deficit in FY 2021 would be a little over $1 trillion. This is fine. I’m fine. Everything is fine.
Speaking of the deficit: The CBO is out with a new report on the budgetary effects of the two most recent pieces of enacted COVID-19 legislation. The report shows that Divisions M and N of the Consolidated Appropriations Act added $868 billion to the budget deficit while the American Rescue Plan Act added $1.856 trillion. Between the four COVID-19 relief bills passed last year and the bills in this new report, Congress has added $5.128 trillion to the budget deficit in response to the pandemic. In FY 2019, before the pandemic, Congress spent $4.447 trillion for the entire federal government. Separately, Politico has gotten ahold of a Congressional Research Service memo to Leader Schumer showing that the debt increased by $7.8 trillion under President Trump.
Congressional Baseball Game: The Congressional Baseball Game is back! I’ve always thought this was a fun event and have gone to three games. Although Republicans have a narrow all-time lead, Democrats have dominated the game since 2009, including impressive wins in 2013 and 2018. That said, Democrats no longer have Cedric Richmond, who was their star pitcher. Get your tickets to the game here.
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