The 119th Congress Begins
Jason Pye - Vice President, Due Process Institute
Happy New Year: Welcome to the first Point of Order in 2025. I’m coming to your inbox still sad about my Georgia Bulldogs loss in the Sugar Bowl. (Coach Smart, please fire Mike Bobo. We need a, you know, good offensive coordinator.) I also have a touch of a cold or something, which is just what I need to start my year. Oh, and my significantly better half, Emily, and I are getting hitched in 36 days! So, good things are happening, too.
The New Congress begins: The 118th Congress is set to wrap up this morning. In a little less than an hour (12:00 pm), the 119th Congress will begin. Much of what happens on the first day is organizational. More likely than not, the Senate will take care of its organizational business by unanimous consent. We may not see any votes today in the chamber. There will be a ceremonial swearing-in for senators around 1:00 pm. The House is where things may get interesting, and we will spend much of our time in today’s newsletter on the House side because of that.
Party divisions: As a reminder, Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats have 47 seats (including two independents). In the House, the expectation is that Republicans will have 219 seats and Democrats will have 215 seats. The lone vacancy is in FL-01 (Gaetz).
The order of business in the House: The first vote in the House will be a quorum call. Members will vote “present” to establish a quorum and show they’re in the chamber. The next vote is on the election of the Speaker. More on that in a minute. When that issue is resolved, the chamber will consider the Rules of the House for the 119th Congress. There have been changes to the Rules, the most notable of which is the motion to vacate the chair (deposing the Speaker). In the 118th Congress, a single member from either party could introduce a resolution to vacate the chair, claim privilege, and force a vote on the floor. The new Rules require that the member offering the resolution be from the majority party. That member must also have eight cosponsors from the majority party. Typically, Rules are a party-line vote, but a few Republicans have grumbled about the changes.
Legislation included in the Rules: The Rules also provide for the consideration of a dozen bills, which, presumably, will be on the floor next week. None of the bills have short titles yet, but I’ve compared them to legislation introduced in the 118th Congress and identified them. The short titles are in parathesis after each bill name. Generally, these are messaging bills that likely can’t get 60 votes for cloture in the Senate. A couple of them, though, could get 60 votes for cloture and pass the Senate if incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) were to put them on the floor.
A bill to amend the Education Amendments of 1972 to provide that for purposes of determining compliance with title IX of such Act in athletics, sex shall be recognized based solely on a person’s reproductive biology and genetics at birth. (Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act)
A bill to require the Secretary of Homeland Security to take into custody aliens who have been charged in the United States with theft, and for other purposes. (Laken Riley Act)
A bill to amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to provide that aliens who have been convicted of or who have committed sex offenses or domestic violence are inadmissible and deportable. (Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act)
A bill to make the assault of a law enforcement officer a deportable offense, and for other purposes. (Protect Our Law Enforcement with Immigration Control and Enforcement Act, or POLICE Act)
A bill to provide that sanctuary jurisdictions that provide benefits to aliens who are present in the United States without lawful status under the immigration laws are ineligible for Federal funds intended to benefit such aliens. (No Bailout for Sanctuary Cities Act)
A bill to impose criminal and immigration penalties for intentionally fleeing a pursuing Federal officer while operating a motor vehicle. (Agent Raul Gonzalez Officer Safety Act)
A bill to amend title 18, United States Code, to prohibit a health care practitioner from failing to exercise the proper degree of care in the case of a child who survives an abortion or attempted abortion. (Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act)
A bill to impose sanctions with respect to the International Criminal Court engaged in any effort to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute any protected person of the United States and its allies. (Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act)
A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules for the taxation of certain residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States. (United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act)
A bill to amend the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 to require proof of United States citizenship to register an individual to vote in elections for Federal office, and for other purposes. (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or SAVE Act)
A bill to amend the Controlled Substances Act with respect to the scheduling of fentanyl-related substances, and for other purposes. (HALT Fentanyl Act)
A bill to prohibit a moratorium on the use of hydraulic fracturing. (Protecting American Energy Production Act)
These bills are coming to the floor under a closed process. No amendments can be offered.
Can Johnson survive?: The biggest thing to watch in the House today is the vote for Speaker of the House. The current Speaker, Mike Johnson (R-LA), can’t lose more than two Republicans. As far as we know, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is the only dissenting Republican at this point, but several others are on the fence, nearly all (if not all) of whom are House Freedom Caucus members. The question is whether or not those on-the-fence Republican members are willing to go the distance and force Johnson out by consistently voting for someone else or if they’ll eventually vote “present” to let Johnson keep the gavel. It took Kevin McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to win the job after his six opponents voted present. The thing is, if Johnson can’t win, who replaces him? The three most obvious candidates are House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH). Each one failed to win enough support from the conference on the floor, which is how Johnson got the job. I’m making no predictions here, but keep an eye on Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and what he does.
One more quick thing: I’ll leave you with this. If Johnson consistently can’t get the votes, and this thing stretches through the weekend, how does the House handle its side of the Joint Session to count the electoral votes on January 6? None of the members will have been sworn in. I don’t know the answer to this question, but I’m genuinely curious since counting the electoral votes is a constitutional obligation.