Tax Bill Could Hit the Floor in the House, GENIUS Act in the Senate, Treasury Yields Rise After Moody's Downgrades the US
Jason Pye - Vice President, Due Process Institute
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
Schedule and suspensions in the House: The House returns at 2:00 pm on Monday for legislative business. Votes are postponed until 6:30 pm. The House will also be in session on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The last votes for the week are expected no later than 3:00 pm on Thursday. No votes are expected on Friday. Fourteen (14) bills are expected to be considered under the suspension of the rules (listed below). The cost estimates for those bills are available here.
H.R. 1223, ANCHOR Act (Science, Space, and Technology Committee)
H.R. 1453, Clean Energy Demonstration Transparency Act (Science, Space, and Technology Committee)
H.R. 1701, Strategic Ports Reporting Act (Foreign Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1263, Strengthening the Quad Act (Foreign Affairs Committee)
H.R. 217, CHIP IN for Veterans Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1147, Veterans Accessibility Advisory Committee Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1286, Simplifying Forms for Veterans Claims Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1578, Veterans Claims Education Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1815, VA Home Loan Program Reform Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1823, VA Budget Shortfall Accountability Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1969, No Wrong Door for Veterans Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 2201, Improving VA Training for Military Sexual Trauma Claims Act( Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 658, To amend title 38, United States Code, to establish qualifications for the appointment of a person as a marriage and family therapist, qualified to provide clinical supervision, in the Veterans Health Administration. (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
H.R. 1364, ASSIST Act (Veterans’ Affairs Committee)
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bills: The House Rules Committee will meet today at 4:00 pm to markup the rule providing for the consideration of the Bank Mergers CRA, S.J.Res. 13, and the Major Source Reclassification, S.J.Res. 31. The House Rules Committee will meet again on Wednesday at 1:00 am (that’s not a typo) to markup the rule providing for the consideration of so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” H.R. ____.
The lay of the land on the tax bill: On Friday, the prospects for the tax bill–dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”–didn’t look good. Conservatives on the House Budget Committee defeated the bill in markup, forcing Republican leadership to negotiate with holdouts over the weekend. The committee met again late Sunday evening and approved the bill after the conservatives voted present to allow it to pass. Negotiations will continue ahead of the Rules Committee meeting on Wednesday at 1:00 am. Conservatives want to speed up Medicaid work requirements and to repeal the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans who want an increase in the cap on the state and local tax deduction are continuing to negotiate with leadership. As written, this thing can’t pass right now, but it could get there if leadership can find the sweet spot.
Moody’s downgrades America’s credit rating: On Friday, Moody’s announced that it had downgraded the United States’ credit rating and changed the outlook to stable. Standard and Poor’s downgraded the United States in August 2011 while Fitch downgraded in August 2023. Moody’s had previously changed the outlook for the United States to negative before moving it to stable on Friday. The market for Treasury securities was feeling the effects of the Moody’s downgrade this morning. The yield for 30-year Treasury securities was above 5 percent. The yield for 10-year Treasury securities is 4.562 percent. Two weeks ago, the yield was 4.343 percent. Why does this matter? As the yields for Treasury securities rise, so do the outlays from the federal government interest payments for the national debt. Interest payments this year on the national debt are already expected to exceed $1 trillion.
House committee schedule: The full House committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
GENIUS Act in the Senate: The Senate returns today at 3:00 pm. Before leaving town for the weekend, cloture motions were filed on the nomination of Charles Kushner to serve as U.S. Ambassador to France and the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, S. 1582. The Senate will vote around 5:30 pm to invoke cloture on the Kushner nomination. Additional votes are expected on Monday, possibly the cloture motion on the motion to proceed to the GENIUS Act. Negotiations are happening that could determine whether the Senate moves forward on the GENIUS Act this week. The Senate tried to move the bill on May 8, but there was bipartisan opposition, and the cloture motion on the motion to proceed failed.
Just a reminder that the Senate isn’t as transparent as the House when it comes to legislation and nominations that may be considered. We usually know what’s happening at the beginning of the week, but it’s often unclear what will happen after that.
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
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