Speaker Vote Scheduled for Tuesday, Senate Returns to Consider Nominees, FY 2023 Deficit At Nearly $1.7 Trillion
Jason Pye - Director, Rule of Law Initiatives
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
Rest in peace, Freaky: Friday was a sad day. Several months ago, Emily and I got a terminal diagnosis for her cat, Freaky. Despite the diagnosis, Freaky continued to be herself by cuddling up to us, sitting in our laps, and demanding her food. In the past week, her behavior began to change. She gradually stopped meowing and became more lethargic. Thankfully, there weren’t any signs of pain. When I got home from Austin on Wednesday, it was clear that we didn’t have long left with her. On Friday, we made the very difficult decision to visit the vet. Freaky was 18 years old. Emily had her since she was a kitten, and they had a clear connection. It broke my heart to see Emily lose her best friend. It also broke my heart because I grew attached to Freaky, as well as the rest of her cats. If you’ve lost a pet, you know how hard this can be. Please keep Emily in your thoughts. (I took the photo below on September 27, the night of the second Republican presidential debate. Freaky was as annoyed as I was while watching it.)
Nominees in the Senate: The Senate returns today at 3:00 pm to resume consideration of the nomination of Jennifer L. Hall to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware. A roll call vote on the cloture motion for the Hall nomination is expected to begin around 5:30 pm. Cloture motions were also filed on the nominations of Julia Kathleen Murray to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania and Karla Ann Gilbride to serve as General Counsel of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission for a four-year term.
Menendez’s legal troubles: I keep meaning to bring this up, but I’ve forgotten for a few weeks. Like Trump and Rep. George Santos (R-NY), Menendez is innocent until proven guilty. The charges in both the original indictment filed in September and the superseding indictment filed last week are very serious. The charges are also concerning considering that Menendez, until he stepped down because of the indictment, chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) now chairs the committee. Several Senate Democrats have called on Menendez to resign, which he has thus far resisted. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) urged his colleagues to expel Menendez after the superseding indictment was released.
Senate committee schedule: Below are some Senate committee hearings that may be of interest. The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here.
Name, Image, and Likeness, and the Future of College Sports (Judiciary, Tuesday at 10:00 am)
How Community Development Financial Institutions Promote Housing and Economic Opportunity (Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development; Tuesday at 2:30 pm)
Examining the Implications of Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency for Clean Water Act Protections of Wetlands and Streams (Environment and Public Works, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Nomination Hearing (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Improving Care, Lowering Costs: Achieving Health Care Efficiency (Budget, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Military to Civilian Transition: Ensuring Success After Service (Veterans’ Affairs and Armed Services, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Medicare Advantage Annual Enrollment: Cracking Down on Deceptive Practices and Improving Senior Experiences (Finance, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Nominations Hearing (Commerce, Science, and Transportation; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Nominations Hearing (Foreign Relations, Wednesday at 10:30 am)
Promoting Safety, Innovation, and Competitiveness in U.S. Commercial Human Space Activities (Commerce, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee on Space and Science; Wednesday at 2:30 pm)
Preserving Due Process and the Rule of Law: Examining the Status of Our Nation’s Immigration Courts (Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, and Border Safety; Wednesday at 2:30 pm)
Nominations Hearing (Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; Thursday at 10:00 am)
Nominations Hearing (Foreign Relations, Thursday at 10:00 am)
The Economic Impact of Federal Investments in Massachusetts (Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Policy; Friday at 3:00 pm)
If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
A vote has been scheduled for Speaker: The House is currently scheduled to meet on Tuesday at 12:00 pm for a roll call vote to elect a new Speaker of the House. On Friday, the House Republicans nominated Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) for Speaker. More on that in a minute. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will be the Democratic nominee. Jeffries is very likely to keep his caucus together during the vote(s).
It’s an uphill battle for Jordan: Since Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was deposed as Speaker on October 3, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was denied the votes needed to win a floor vote for Speaker. Jordan, who is a founder of the House Freedom Caucus and chair of the House Judiciary Committee, was Scalise’s only opponent in the conference. On October 11, Scalise got 113 votes in the conference to Jordan’s 99 votes. However, several conservatives insisted that they would only vote for Jordan, so Scalise withdrew the next day. Obviously, Jordan declared his candidacy again, and he was the only candidate until hours before the conference voted on Friday. Rep. Austin Scott (R-GA) ran against Jordan in a last-second candidacy. Jordan beat Scott in conference, 124 to 81. That result, considering Scott is usually a pretty quiet backbench member, wasn’t exactly a show of strength for Jordan. The conference voted again on whether or not members would vote for Jordan on the floor. Fifty-five members said they wouldn’t vote for him. Now, all of these votes were by secret ballot. It’s one thing to oppose Jordan privately, in a secret ballot in a vote held in a conference meeting. It’s another thing to vote against any candidate for Speaker on the floor.
There’s a lot of pressure being applied to House Republicans on the fence or opposed to Jordan: It should come as no surprise that groups that make up the “Conservative Industrial Complex” (or “Conservative, Inc.,” if you prefer) have gotten behind Jordan. These groups are undoubtedly being fed the names of those who are on the fence about Jordan or have said they plan to vote against him and are driving tweets, emails, and phone calls to these offices. There are also alleged threats of primary challenges against holdouts. The threat of primary challenges is something far-right conservatives have decried for years. The pressure campaign could backfire, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), who supports Jordan, warned over the weekend. For members who come from competitive districts—and keep in mind there are 18 Republicans who represent districts President Biden won—a vote for Jordan could come back to haunt them in a general election, regardless of a primary challenge. How many of those members are holdouts? It’s not clear. It is clear, though, that Jordan doesn’t have the votes right now. It’s not clear he’ll have them after additional rounds of voting if he decides to push it that far. I have members who’ve come out against Jordan who I’m watching to see what they do. Remember, Jordan can’t lose more than four in a floor vote.
No one knows what to expect if Jordan can’t win over holdouts: As of today, I’d say it’s more likely than not that Jordan can’t get the votes to become Speaker, but that doesn’t mean he won’t eventually get them. What happens if Jordan fails? It’s hard to say for certain. The House Republican Conference could retreat behind the scenes again to try to find another nominee, but there are a lot of fractures in the conference. There’s a school of thought that no one can get the 217 votes needed on the floor to win the gavel, so that would push some House Republicans to scramble to get the House back to work. The bipartisan coalition idea that has been floated seems very far-fetched. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it’s so unlikely. What could happen, and this is beginning to take shape to a limited degree, is that there’s a deal reached to empower Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) in his role as Speaker Pro Tempore of the House to govern on bipartisan legislation. That would also be a big lift to get across the finish line because there would be a large amount of resistance on the Republican side. Presumably, progressive Democrats would balk at such a deal as well.
House committee schedule: Below are some House committee hearings that may be of interest. The full House committee schedule for the week is here.
Running on Empty: The Highway Trust Fund (Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transit, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
An Examination of the Iranian Regime’s Threats to Homeland Security (Homeland Security, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Strengthening Biosafety and Biosecurity Standards: Protecting Against Future Pandemics (Coronavirus Pandemic, Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Balancing Knowledge and Governance: Foundations for Effective Risk Management of Artificial Intelligence (Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Oversight of Federal Agencies’ Post-Pandemic Telework Policies: Part II (Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee on Government Operations and the Federal Workforce; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Safeguarding Data and Innovation: Building the Foundation for the Use of Artificial Intelligence (Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Innovation, Data, and Commerce; Wednesday at 10:00 am)
Examining the Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Obstruction of the BOEM Offshore Leasing Program (Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resource; Wednesday at 10:15 am)
Protecting Workers and Small Businesses from Biden's Attack on Worker Free Choice and Economic Growth (Education and the Workforce Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions; Wednesday at 10:15 am)
Protecting Beneficiaries from the Harm of Improper Payments (Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security, Wednesday at 2:00 pm)
Can it work? Outside Perspectives on DOD's Replicator Program (Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation; Thursday at 9:00 am)
IP and Strategic Competition with China: Part III – IP Theft, Cybersecurity, and AI (Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet; Thursday at 10:00 am)
Regional Commissions: A Review of Federal Economic Development Program Effectiveness (Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management; Thursday at 10:00 am)
Trust in Transparency: Holding VA Accountable and Protecting Whistleblowers (Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Sounding the Alarm: Examining the Need for a Fiscal Commission (Budget, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Burdensome Regulations: Examining the Effects of DOL Rulemaking on America’s Job Creators (Small Business, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Markup of Various Legislative Measures (Foreign Affairs, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Oversight of the U.S. General Services Administration (Oversight and Accountability, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Investigating Pandemic Fraud: Preventing History from Repeating Itself (Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight, Thursday at 10:00 am)
Protecting Kids: Combating Graphic, Explicit Content in School Libraries (Education and the Workforce Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary, and Secondary Education; Thursday at 10:15 am)
Emerging Therapies: Breakthroughs in the Battle Against Suicide? (Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Health, Thursday at 1:30 pm)
If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Deficit watch: The budget deficit for FY 2023 was $1.69 trillion. That’s $315 billion higher than the budget deficit for FY 2022 and $161 billion higher than the Congressional Budget Office’s May 2023 projection for FY 2023. Total receipts were down by 9 percent in FY 2023 compared to FY 2022, largely because of the 17 percent decline in individual income tax receipts. Outlays were down 2 percent. The decline in outlays was driven by the expiration of pandemic-related spending and the Supreme Court’s decision against the Biden administration’s student loan cancellation scheme. Mandatory outlays, though, increased by 11 percent and net interest on the public debt increased by 33 percent.
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