It’s the most wonderful time of the year: I say this as someone born on Christmas Day, but Halloween is the literal most wonderful time of the year. It’s hoodie weather, and it’s awesome. The only drawback is the campaign ads showing up on TV. Thankfully, that will be over soon. Anyway, we’ll be back with normal updates the week of November 14. However, I figured an update is in order since a lot of stuff has happened since Congress went into recess.
Keep an eye on the Republican whip race: In the likely event that Republicans take back the House, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is generally expected to become Speaker and Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is expected to become Majority Leader. Scalise’s near-certain accent leaves the Republican whip position open. Three candidates have emerged in the race, Reps. Tom Emmer (R-MN), Jim Banks (R-ID), and Drew Ferguson (R-GA). Although Ferguson is the current deputy whip, the race seems to be between Emmer and Banks. Emmer, who is the current chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), has reportedly come under fire from the resident right-wing populist at Fox News, who, sadly, does have quite a reach in the conservative movement. The very ambitious Banks currently chairs the Republican Study Committee and is a favorite of the Trumpist wing of the party. Emmer may get a boost if Republicans have a good election night, but Banks’s supporters have argued that Emmer is too moderate (which is an absurd criticism) for the increasingly far-right House Republican Conference. Leadership elections are expected to take place on Tuesday, November 15.
The dynamic between the Freedom Caucus and Republican leadership: One of the major storylines for next year will be how House Republican leadership navigates what will very likely be a tense relationship with the House Freedom Caucus (HFC). Depending on the size of the Republican majority, the far-right caucus of roughly 40 members could be a major thorn in the side of leadership. Consider this. The HFC has already prepared an orientation packet for new members that has some ill-advised proposals. To be clear, the packet has some proposals that should be taken seriously, including opening up the legislative process and making committee appointments based on merit rather than fundraising ability or proximity to leadership. However, there are other ideas that need to be squashed. A couple of those are codifying the so-called “Hastert rule” in the rules of the conference. This means that legislation that doesn’t have the support of a majority of the majority won’t come up for a vote. That’s a bad idea when you consider appropriations. It’s also absurd to think that a minority of the House can hold up legislation that may have broad support across party lines. Another rule change that the HFC wants is the restoration of the motion to vacate the chair. The chair is the Speaker. The HFC played this card in July 2015 when then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) introduced a resolution to vacate the chair then held by Speaker John Boehner (R-OH). Boehner resigned rather than face what would’ve essentially been a vote of no confidence. Democrats modified this rule of the House when they took over the chamber in January 2019 to make it harder to do. The grievances the HFC had were valid, but the motion to vacate is a sword of Damocles that will be wielded by a few.
Sinema on the filibuster: You’ve got to hand it to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). She’s one of the boldest members of Congress from either party. Not only did Sinema, along with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), vote against eliminating the legislative filibuster, but she is also calling for the restoration of the filibuster for executive and judicial nominees. Oh, and Sinema made these comments at the McConnell Center at the University of Louisville. Take a guess who that’s named after.
The Progressive Caucus’s gaffe: You’ve got to hand it to the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC). McCarthy handed them a gift when he put a question mark behind funding for Ukraine. His reasoning is that House Republicans want to get a handle on federal spending as a way to combat inflation. And I agree that the hangover we’re experiencing now is because of excessive federal spending, which already needed to be put in check. (Not that Republicans have helped much there.) But the House Republican Conference has been increasingly hostile not only to more aid for Ukraine, but some members have become useful idiots for the Kremlin. Enter the CPC. Earlier this week, the CPC released a letter to President Biden signed by several CPC members in the House–including Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who co-chairs the CPC; Ro Khanna (D-CA), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)–that called for President Biden to begin diplomacy with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. This is illogical for two reasons. The first is that Ukraine appears to be winning the war, having reclaimed ground stolen by Moscow after the invasion and inflicting severe losses on the Russian armed forces. The second is that any peace agreement would almost certainly mean that Ukraine has to give up any claim to Crimea and the eastern parts of the Donbas currently occupied by Russia. Apparently, the letter was drafted several months ago, presumably when the war looked like more of a stalemate. How and why the letter got released isn’t clear considering the optics. The reaction was so strongly against the CPC’s letter that the caucus has withdrawn it.
Deficit watch: The budget deficit for FY 2022 was $1.377 trillion. While this is a much lower deficit than FY 2020 and FY 2021, as spending related to the pandemic expired, it’s still $200 billion or so higher than what the Congressional Budget Office projected in July 2021 (See Table 1-1) and roughly $300 billion more than projected in March 2021 (Table 1).
Oh, I have another Substack: I started Exiled Policy recently as a way to write about other issues–spending, demographics, and other issues–that are separate from my day job. I don’t know how often I’ll update it, but it’s something of a passion project. Subscribe for updates in your inbox.