It’s a complete disaster in the House: There’s really no getting around it. There’s no meaning to the motion happening in the House right now. It’s a disaster for House Republicans. The continuing resolution (CR) that was negotiated by members of the House Freedom Caucus and the Republican Main Street Partnership is dead because many House Freedom Caucus members, as well as a handful of members not affiliated with the far-right group, weren’t on board with it. I don’t want to say that CR is dead, but it’s difficult to see a path forward for it right now. On Tuesday, while I was rolling out to see the Foo Fighters in Virginia Beach, five Republicans defected and sank the rule for the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for FY 2024, H.R. 4365. The defense appropriations bill has, thus, been yanked from consideration while House Republican leadership tries to figure out what’s next.
There are so many rumors swirling: For our purposes, I’m focusing on only a couple of rumors I’ve heard in the past 24 hours. The possibility of a discharge petition to fund the federal government is a real. A “break glass in case of emergency” discharge petition was filed in May, and it currently has 213 signatures, all of whom are Democrats. With tensions rising between Republican moderates and burn-it-all-down conservatives, we could see five Republicans sign that discharge petition to move a CR. To be clear, I’m not saying that we will see movement. I’m saying it’s a possibility. It’s increasingly likely that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) will file his motion to vacate soon. Someone left a copy of it in a Capitol restroom yesterday. It’s very hard to see Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) getting the votes he needs to stay in his current role if the motion is filed. I’ve heard that Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) could’ve gotten Democratic votes back in 2015 to stay in office if a motion to vacate were filed against him. Speaker McCarthy, who recently announced a “formal” impeachment inquiry against President Biden, doesn’t have the same goodwill with his Democratic colleagues. Obviously, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) is next in line. However, he is currently being treated for blood cancer. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) has allies in conservative circles. Do either of them want the job? Can either of them get 218 votes? At this point, who knows. Could talk of a compromise Speaker resurface? It’s far too early to say.
Reality hasn’t set in for the far-right: Everyone knows that a CR is going to happen. The question is how much pain Congress has to endure before it happens. At this point, few believe there won’t be a shutdown. That discharge petition could change the trajectory, though. Conservatives who’ve, thus far, resisted funding the federal government are setting themselves up for a loss when they don’t get the spending levels they want or the policy riders they’ve demanded. That was always going to happen. Most of them know that. Maybe the spending fight is all just about the far-right’s dislike of Speaker McCarthy; sort of a proxy fight, if you will. If that’s the case, this has been a colossal waste of time and effort. That said, McCarthy made a lot of promises that he knew he was going to have a really difficult time keeping.
House NDAA conferees named: The House moved to go to conference with the House on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024. Speaker McCarthy has named the Republican conferees, which can be found here. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) named the Democratic conferees, which are available here. I’m not sure if the Senate conferees have been named.
Today and the rest of the week in the House: Today, the House will consider a Democratic motion to instruct the conferees and a postponed suspension, the Veterans Benefits Improvement Act, H.R. 1530. On Thursday, the House will likely consider the resolution condemning the actions of Governor of New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham, for subverting the Second Amendment to the Constitution and depriving the citizens of New Mexico of their right to bear arms, H.Res. 684. There’s a possibility, in the absence of a deal on funding the government, that the House remains in session on Friday, through the weekend, and into next week.
Over in the Senate: The Senate is currently voting on the cloture motion to suspend the rules to break the impasse on the H.R. 4366, which is the vehicle for the Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and the Transportation and Housing and Urban Development appropriations bills. Although the cloture motion has a three-fifths threshold, the motion to suspend the rules requires two-thirds.