Point of Order Bonus Edition: November 16, 2022
By Jason Pye - Director, Rule of Law Initiatives
An update on House party divisions in the 118th Congress: As of this morning, Republicans are projected to have 217 seats in the House in the 118th Congress while Democrats are expected to hold 207 seats. There are 11 seats still in play. Democratic candidates currently lead in seven of those seats. Republicans lead in four. While I use CNN to track races, Decision Desk has Republicans at 219 seats and Democrats at 206.
The House is in: The House began its business today at 10:00 am. Legislative business got underway at 12:00 pm. Members will vote on 11 suspensions that were postponed and the Speak Out Act, S. 4524. Last votes are expected to begin between 1:00 pm to 1:15 pm.
Recapping the House Republican leadership elections: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) won the House Republican nomination for Speaker on Tuesday, defeating Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) by a vote of 188 to 31. Five members cast votes for other candidates. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) was elected to serve as majority leader by voice vote. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) was elected as majority whip. This race was interesting because Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), the chair of the Republican Study Committee, had emerged as a real candidate in the race. Some thought Republicans’ poor showing in the midterms would doom Emmer’s chances since he chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee. Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), who was the deputy whip under Scalise, also emerged as a serious candidate. On the first ballot, Banks had 82 votes. Emmer, who took 72 votes on the first ballot, barely edged out Ferguson, who had 71 votes. Emmer defeated Banks on the second ballot, 115 to 106. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was re-elected as conference chair, defeating Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) by a vote of 144 to 74. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) was elected to serve as NRCC chair by voice vote.
McCarthy’s more important vote is ahead: The vote inside the conference was important for McCarthy, but the only that ultimately matters happens at the beginning of the 118th Congress. The Speaker is elected by the House, and that vote requires a majority of those present and voting. The vote has become interesting to watch in recent years, as the vote for Speaker has become weaponized by the fringes of party factions. In 2015, 25 Republicans cast votes for alternatives to Rep. John Boehner (OH). In 2019, 15 Democrats didn’t vote for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Still, both Boehner and Pelosi had majorities of those present and voting. Biggs ran only to prove that McCarthy didn’t have 218 votes. That point has been made. At least right now. McCarthy is showing confidence, but he has his work cut out for him. The House Freedom Caucus wants some concessions from McCarthy in the conference rules and the House Rules. (The proposed changes are here, but some of the amendments filed are not from House Freedom Caucus members.) Some of those concessions mean that members like Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) may vote against the rules package if it brings back the motion to vacate the chair. However, there are at least a few members, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) immediately comes to mind, who won’t vote for McCarthy under any circumstances. If it’s not McCarthy, I’m not sure who brings the conference together to get the votes needed to become Speaker without making concessions to the House Freedom Caucus. On the other hand, the House Freedom Caucus has folded in the past. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) didn’t have 218 when he was picked in the internal conference vote. He still got 236 votes when the House voted in October 2015.
Same-sex marriage test vote today: The Senate is expected to vote on the cloture motion to the motion to proceed to the Respect for Marriage Act, H.R. 8404, today at 3:15 pm. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) filed the cloture motion on Monday after a deal was reached between Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Susan Collins (R-ME), Rob Portman (R-OH), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) on religious liberty and conscience protections. The text of the amendment to the bill is available here, and the one-pager is here. The cloture motion to the motion to proceed is a three-fifths threshold (60 votes if all senators are present and voting). It’s worth noting that Sens. Ben Sasse (R-NE) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) have missed the three roll call votes that took place on Monday and Tuesday. Although the group who came to an agreement on the amendment with the religious liberty and conscience protections believes they have the votes, ten Republicans need to vote for the cloture motion. It’s not publicly clear if they have those votes. As I mentioned a while back, I joined a letter with more than 400 Republicans, conservatives, and libertarians in supporting the Respect for Marriage Act.
Scott runs against McConnell: The Senate Republican Conference will vote today on its leadership for the 118th Congress after a motion to delay the election failed. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is expected to win re-election, but Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) did wind up running against him. Scott, who chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee during a disappointing midterm for Republicans, isn’t expected to get a lot of support, and McConnell should be re-elected by a wide margin.
Happy Thanksgiving: I’m on vacation next week, and it’s also a holiday. The next Point of Order will hit your inbox on Tuesday, November 29. I’m thankful for your readership. I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving.
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