Make or Break Week for House Republicans on Budget Reconciliation, Nominees in the Senate, Government Funding Negotiations Not Going Well
Jason Pye - Vice President, Due Process Institute
Schedule and suspensions in the House: The House returns at 2:00 pm today for legislative business. Votes are postponed until 6:30 pm. The House will also be in session on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The last votes for the week are expected no later than 3:00 pm on Friday. Ten (10) bills are expected to be considered under the suspension of the rules (listed below). The cost estimates for those bills are available here.
H.R. 250, To direct the Joint Committee on the Library to procure a statue of Benjamin Franklin for placement in the Capitol
H.R. 469, Semiquincentennial Congressional Time Capsule Act
H.R. 695, Medal of Honor Act
H.R. 754, Investing in Main Street Act
H.R. 788, DOE and SBA Research Act
H.R. 804, Rural Small Business Resilience Act
H.R. 818, SPUR Act
H.R. 825, Assisting Small Businesses Not Fraudsters Act
H.R. 828, SERV Act
H.R. 832, Small Business Advocacy Improvements Act
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bills: The House Rules Committee will meet today at 4:00 pm to markup the rule providing for consideration of the FY 2025 budget resolution, H.Con.Res. 14; disapproval resolution under the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to cancel a Department of Energy rule that Republicans say would ban natural gas water heaters, H.J.Res. 20; and a disapproval resolution under the CRA to cancel the Environmental Protection Agency’s Waste Emissions Charge Rule, H.J.Res. 35.
Here comes budget reconciliation: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) got a boost last when Trump expressed a preference for House Republicans’ approach to budget reconciliation, which is to pass one reconciliation bill that includes border money, the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and other priorities. Senate Republicans wanted a two-bill approach, with the border and other priorities first. Although Trump is backing the House plan, the Senate passed its version of the budget resolution, S.Con.Res. 7, in the early hours of Friday by a vote of 52 to 48. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) was the only Republican to vote against the budget. Is a backup plan needed? House Republicans’ budget resolution gives instructions for at least $880 billion in deficit reduction from Energy and Commerce, $330 billion from Education and the Workforce, and $230 billion from Agriculture. That’s most likely aimed at Medicaid, student loans and aid, and SNAP. The instructions to these committees to find spending cuts may make conservatives happy, but they make the few remaining moderate House Republicans nervous. Currently, Johnson needs 217 votes out of the 218 members of the House Republican Conference, assuming all members are present and voting. Getting it across the finish line is going to be a real challenge. In all likelihood, if the budget gets done this week, the actual reconciliation bill will be on the floor in April after the new members from FL-01 and FL-06 are sworn into office. That’ll give Johnson a little more breathing room.
House committee schedule: The full House committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Nominees in the Senate: The Senate returns today at 3:00 pm to resume consideration of the nomination of Daniel Driscoll to serve as Secretary of the Army. The Senate will also consider the nomination of Jamieson Greer to serve as United States Trade Representative. Cloture motions were filed for both nominees before the Senate left for the weekend. Around 5:30 pm, the Senate will vote on the cloture for at least the Driscoll nomination.
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Government funding update: As you may remember, the current continuing resolution (CR) runs through Friday, March 14. The prospects of a consolidated appropriations bill don’t sound great. We warned that the administration’s spending freeze could throw a wrench in negotiations for FY 2025 appropriations, and that’s precisely what’s happened. Republican and Democratic appropriations haven’t been able to agree on the topline defense and nondefense figures. Democrats want to ensure that any funding agreement is followed at a time when the administration is blatantly ignoring the law. Another CR is possible, if not all but inevitable. The only real question is how long it will be.
Tariffs update: Just a reminder that the 25 percent tariffs aimed at Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4 unless there’s another reprieve. There’s also the 10 percent tariff on energy resources from Canada–including oil, natural gas, and electricity–that will take effect on March 4. These tariffs were delayed once already, and negotiations between Canada, Mexico, and the United States are ongoing. A 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on March 12. Finally, the White House has floated a 25 percent tariff on semiconductors, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals that could take effect on April 2.