Laken Riley Act Moves Toward Final Passage, More Nomination Hearings and Commitee Action, More Deaths Than Births in 2033
Jason Pye - Vice President, Due Process Institute
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day: I know other things are happening today, but considering today is also MLK Day, I thought I’d begin with my favorite quote from a great man: “For the good of America, it is necessary to refute the idea that the dominant ideology in our country, even today, is freedom and equality while racism is just an occasional departure from the norm on the part of a few bigoted extremists. Racism can well be that corrosive evil that will bring down the curtain on Western civilization.”
Laken Riley Act moving toward final passage: The Senate will reconvene at 4:30 pm today to resume consideration of the Laken Riley Act, S. 5. It’s pretty clear the Laken Riley Act is on the path to passage. The cloture motion to limit debate was approved by the Senate on Thursday by a vote of 61 to 35. The Senate will vote on S.Amdt. 8, offered by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), around 5:30 pm. A vote on final passage may take place after the vote on the Ernst amendment.
More nominations hearings this week: Several nominees for cabinet positions in the incoming administration will appear before Senate committees this week. We’ll also begin to see committee votes on nominations beginning today. These nominations will likely dominate floor time over the next couple of weeks.
Business meeting on the nomination of Marco Rubio, Secretary of State (Monday at 4:30 pm, Foreign Relations)
Business meeting on the nomination of Kristi Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security (Monday at TBD, Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs)
Hearing on the nomination of Elise Stefanik, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (10:00 am on Tuesday, Foreign Relations)
Hearing on the nomination of Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs (10:00 am on Tuesday, Veterans’ Affairs)
Hearing on the nomination of Russ Vought, Director of the Office of Management and Budget (Wednesday at 10:00 am, Budget)
Business meeting on the nomination of Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation (Wednesday at 10:00 am; Commerce, Science, and Transportation)
Business meeting on the nomination of Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs (Thursday at 9:00 am, Veterans’ Affairs)
Hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture (10:00 am on Thursday; Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry)
Party divisions in the Senate: Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) picked Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R-OH) to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of J.D. Vance. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) picked Attorney General Ashley Moody (R-FL) to fill the seat that will be left vacant by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) once he resigns to assume his role as Secretary of State. As of today, because Rubio is still in office and Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV) finally took office, Republicans have 52 seats to Democrats’ 47 seats (including two independents).
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Schedule and suspensions in the House: The House returns at 2:00 pm on Tuesday for legislative business. Votes are postponed until 6:30 pm. The House will also be in session on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The last votes for the week are expected no later than 3:00 pm on Friday. Seven (7) bills are expected to be considered under the suspension of the rules (listed below). The cost estimates for those bills are available here.
H.R. 207 – SHARKED Act (Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 186 – Hershel ‘Woody’ Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Location Act (Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 187 – MAPWaters Act (Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 197 – Lake Winnibigoshish Land Exchange Act (Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 204 – ACRES Act (Sponsored by Rep. Tiffany)
H.R. 165 – Wounded Knee Massacre Memorial and Sacred Sit Act (Natural Resources Committee)
H.R. 375 – Continued Rapid Ohia Death Response Act (Natural Resources Committee)
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bills: The House Rules Committee will meet at 4:00 pm on Tuesday to markup the rule providing for the consideration of the Fix Our Forests Act, H.R. 471. The House will also consider the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act, H.R. 21, and the Senate-passed version of the Laken Riley Act, S. 5. H.R. 21 is being considered pursuant to H.Res. 5, which passed the House on January 3. H.Res. 5 was the Rules package for the 119th Congress and included these and other bills for consideration in the opening weeks of the new Congress.
The committee shake-ups: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) made some news last week by removing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) from the House Rules Committee. He did, however, leave Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC) on the committee. Massie, along with Roy and Norman, were thorns in the side of Johnson, forcing the Speaker to put bills on the floor on suspension rather than under a rule. Massie, of course, didn’t vote for Johnson for Speaker, although Roy and Norman made a point to show that there were potentially more than enough votes to force a vote to vacate the chair if Johnson doesn’t meet the (unrealistic) expectations of the House Freedom Caucus. In another nod to the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA) was placed on Rules. The bigger news was the removal of Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) as chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI). The removal of Turner is welcome news. During the debate over reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), Turner was an extraordinarily dishonest player, from not negotiating with reformers in good faith to issuing a cryptic statement about a veiled “national security threat” and more. Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR) will take over HPSCI. Additionally, reform-minded members like Reps. Ben Cline (R-VA) and Greg Steube (R-FL) have been placed on the committee.
House committee schedule: The full House committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
More deaths than births among the native-born population in 2033: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 early last week. The data in the report are alarming. The previous report indicated that the United States will see more deaths than births among the native-born population in 2040. However, the report released last week moved the date up to 2033. The United States will have more than 10 million fewer people than previously estimated. The decline in projected population is driven by declining fertility rates and lower-than-expected immigration.
Debt to top $50 trillion in FY 2035: The CBO also released The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035 on Friday. The projections aren’t too much of a departure from the previous estimates released in June 2024. That being said, the share of the debt held by the public will exceed $50 trillion in FY 2035. The debt to GDP ratio will reach 118.5 percent of gross domestic product. Discretionary spending as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline while it will continue to rise for mandatory outlays and net interest. This, despite growing tax revenues, based on expirations in current law. (In other words, assuming the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act isn’t extended.)
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