Debt Limit Deal Comes to Congress, First Step Act Improved Public Safety
Jason Pye - Director, Rule of Law Initiatives
A short Point of Order: Sorry, folks. I wasn’t going to write Point of Order this week since only the Senate was scheduled to be in session. That changed over the weekend. I’m mentally and physically exhausted after the past week. Some real quick things unrelated to the Point of Order. To my Atlanta friends, it was great seeing you all. Thrice was amazing. Driving 550 miles in an electric vehicle isn’t something I’d advise. EVs just aren’t cut out for long drives. Spending ten hours putting stuff together the day after driving 550 miles and two days after getting new tattoos also isn’t something I’d advise. I feel my age today, folks, and it sucks.
What’s the recidivism rate for people released under the First Step Act?: Since Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) put his foot in his mouth again when he said that he’d repeal the First Step Act, I thought would be a good idea to point out that the recidivism rate for people release from prison under the First Step Act is 12.4 percent. (See p. 41 of the document.) That’s really low. Like, amazingly low. By comparison, the Bureau of Prisons claims its recidivism rate “is around 43 percent.” The First Step Act has worked. As former Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) said last week, “[T]he program is reducing recidivism rates across the countries, which is making our communities safer and bolstering our economy with more people in the workforce. I’m proud to have been part of its design and passage, alongside the vast majority of Republicans in both chambers that included then-Congressman Ron DeSantis, and conservatives remain committed to work towards a more effective justice system across the country.” And yes, DeSantis voted for the original bill in May 2022. The sentencing reforms weren’t included in that version, but the prison reforms were.
The debt limit deal: While I was in Buc-ee’s in Florence, South Carolina, on Saturday, I received a news alert that President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-SC) had reached a deal in principle to increase the debt limit. The text of the deal—legislatively known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act—was rolled out on Sunday. The Fiscal Responsibility Act suspends the debt limit through 2024. There are wins here for the White House and Democrats. The White House wanted the debt limit increase/suspension to run through the 2024 presidential election. Democrats also wanted a suspension of the debt limit over a statutory figure. However, the Department of the Treasury can’t borrow above normal operating balances or accelerate obligations.
On the spending side of the debt limit deal: The Fiscal Responsibility Act establishes discretionary spending caps for FY 2024 and FY 2025 and overall discretionary spending cap (not specific to defense and nondefense) that are as follows (figures are rounded).
$1.590 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2024–$886.349 billion for defense and $703.651 for nondefense
$1.606 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2025–$895.212 billion for defense and $710.688 for nondefense
$1.622 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2026
$1.638 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2027
$1.655 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2028
$1.671 trillion in discretionary spending in FY 2029
This is the first time I’ve been in front of a computer since the text came out, so I haven’t had time to compare the spending caps to the baseline to compare. The bill provides for a 1 percent discretionary spending cut in FY 2024 and FY 2025 if the 12 appropriations bills haven’t become law by the end of the year. Separately, the bill rescinds approximately $28 billion in unobligated COVID-19 funding and $1.4 billion in funding to the Internal Revenue Service that was part of the Inflation Reduction Act. The bill also includes an expansion of work requirements for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Finally, the bill includes permitting reform in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
The bottom line: Everyone on the far left and far right seem pissed off about the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which means that it probably strikes the right balance. It’s worth noting that the House Freedom Caucus is making a lot of noise right now, but I’m skeptical that they pose a real threat to McCarthy’s hold of the gavel. Those who are angry about the bill seem to not have a clear understanding of the political realities of a very closely divided Congress. Can the House and Senate find the votes to pass it? We’ll see, but I’d be surprised if it didn’t pass considering the economic problems that defaulting on the debt could cause.
Here's what’s next for the Fiscal Responsibility Act: The first big test for the Fiscal Responsibility Act comes today in the House Rules Committee. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), a member of Rules, will reportedly vote yes on the bill in committee, ensuring that will be referred to the floor even if Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), who are also members of Rules, vote with the Democratic members. As far as the floor vote goes, the magic number is 218. Frankly, I’d be shocked if the bill doesn’t pass.
Schedule and suspensions in the House: The House returns on today at 2:00 pm for legislative business. First votes are expected at 6:30 pm. Legislative business will begin at 2:00 pm on Wednesday. Last votes are expected around 8:30 pm. No votes are expected on Thursday and Friday. Six bills (listed below) will be considered under the suspension of the rules. The cost estimates for these bills can be found here.
H.R. 835, Fair Investment Opportunities for Professional Experts Act (Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 2792, Small Entity Update Act (Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 2795, Enhancing Multi-Class Share Disclosures Act (Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 2796, Promoting Opportunities for Non-Traditional Capital Formation Act (Financial Services Committee)
H.R. 2797, Equal Opportunity for All Investors Act (Financial Services Committee)
H. Res. 382, Condemning the rise of antisemitism and calling on elected officials to identify and educate others on the contributions of the Jewish American community (Judiciary Committee)
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bill: The House Rules Committee will meet at 3:00 pm today to mark up the rule for the Fiscal Responsibility Act, H.R. 3746. We’d be surprised if this came out under anything other than a closed rule, particularly since no amendment deadline was announced, but we’re not going to say it’s a sure thing since, as of this moment, seven amendments have been filed. Separately, this is the only committee meeting scheduled for the week. You can watch it here.
Over in the Senate: The Senate convenes today at 3:00 pm to resume consideration of the nomination of Darrel James Papillion to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana. The Senate agreed to the cloture motion on the nomination before the recess. The roll call vote on Papillion’s confirmation is expected to begin around 5:30 pm. We assume the Senate will process nominees until the Fiscal Responsibility Act comes over from the House. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) has threatened to drag out the process in the chamber, and it remains to be seen how many defections there are going to be from the fringes of both parties.
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here.