Congress to Consider a Short-Term CR, Johnson Faces Dissent in the House GOP, First Step Act Hearing in the Senate
Jason Pye - Director, Rule of Law Initiatives
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
An update on appropriations: Okay, so there’s a lot to unpack here, and it’s going to take a couple of sections. We’re getting a continuing resolution (CR) through March 1 and March 7 to give appropriators more time to iron out the details on legislative text for the 12 appropriations bills. Under the new funding deadlines, if approved, Agriculture; Energy and Water; Military Constriction and Veterans Affairs (MilCon-VA); Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development (T-HUD) would be extended through March 1 while the remaining appropriations bills, which include Defense, fall under the March 7 deadline. The Senate will go first on the text of the CR. The House will go after. All this said, the current deadline for Ag, Energy and Water, MilCon-VA, and T-HUD is Friday. If Congress can’t get it done, agencies and programs funded under those four bills will shut down.
Johnson might be in trouble: This isn’t exactly a surprise. There’s no pleasing the far-right of the House Republican Conference. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is facing threats to vacate the chair, handing him the same fate as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). The threats have been made over the FY 2024 topline agreement and border security. Some far-right conservatives claimed that Johnson was backing away from the FY 2024 toplines agreed to with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and would instead push for a year-long CR. Johnson, however, said that he wasn’t backing away from the deal. Johnson, who has always been considered a very conservative member, is in an impossible position. For starters, he’s filling a job for which he’s woefully unprepared. Second, the narrow margins leave him no breathing room, as McCarthy learned. Finally, far-right members of his conference have no concept of navigating a divided government because they’re not interested in governing and are fine with burning everything to the ground. Moderate Democrats have expressed a willingness to help Johnson out if he does face a motion to vacate, but they want concessions in return. I feel like we’ve heard that before.
About the spending levels: I’m so tired of hearing about discretionary spending. Listen, folks. Discretionary spending—which is what Congress is debating right now—is projected to be about 28 percent of all federal spending in FY 2024. Everything else is mandatory spending and net interest on the debt. Mandatory spending and net interest are on autopilot and not subject to appropriation. Discretionary spending as a percent of gross domestic product is projected to be 6.6 percent. That’s lower than it was in FY 1996 and only slightly higher than in FY 1997. It’s lower than any point from FY 2002 through FY 2014. The budget deficit is a problem. It needs to be addressed. Discretionary spending isn’t the cause of the budget deficit, nor is it what’s driving debt.
Schedule and suspensions: The House was scheduled to return for votes today, but the weather in DC is terrible. It’s bad enough for the Office of Personnel Management to tell federal employees to work remotely. Likewise, the House is changing the week's schedule ever so slightly. The House will meet today, presumably at 2:00 pm, for legislative business to debate suspensions. However, any votes will be postponed until 1:30 pm tomorrow. The House is also in on Wednesday and Thursday. Votes are expected on both days. The last votes for the week are expected on Friday. Six (6) bills are expected to be considered under suspension of the rules. The cost estimates for those bills can be found here.
Moving Americans Privacy Protection Act, H.R. 1568 (Ways and Means)
Recruiting Families Using Data Act, H.R. 3058 (Ways and Means)
Social Security Child Protection Act, H.R. 3667 (Ways and Means)
To amend the Homeland Security Act of 2002 relating to authority of U.S. Customs and Border Protection to consolidate, modify, or reorganize Customs revenue functions, H.R. 5862 (Ways and Means)
Protect Reporters from Exploitative State Spying Act, H.R. 425 (Judiciary)
A bill to provide remote access to court proceedings for victims of the 1988 Bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, S. 3250 (Judiciary)
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bills: The House Rules Committee will meet today at 4:00 pm to markup the rule providing for the consideration of a resolution denouncing the Biden administration's open-borders policies, condemning the national security and public safety crisis along the southwest border, and urging President Biden to end his administration's open-borders policies, H.Res. 957; the Pregnant Students Rights Act, H.R. 6914; the Supporting Pregnant and Parenting Women and Families Act, H.R. 6918; the report to accompany the Resolution Recommending that the House of Representatives Find Robert Hunter Biden in Contempt of Congress for Refusal to Comply with a Subpoena Duly Issued by the Committee on Oversight and Accountability, H.Res. ____, and the report to accompany the Resolution Recommending that the House of Representatives Find Robert Hunter Biden in Contempt of Congress for Refusal to Comply with a Subpoena Duly Issued by the Committee on the Judiciary, H.Res. ____. The House is expected to consider the CR later this week as well, the text of which can be found here. The CR may be considered on suspension.
House committee schedule: The full House committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Senate begins work on the CR: The Senate returns on Tuesday at 3:00 pm to resume the consideration of the motion to proceed to the vehicle for the CR, H.R. 2872. Around 5:30 pm on Tuesday, the Senate will begin a two-vote series on a resolution requesting information on Israel's human rights practices pursuant to section 502B(c) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, S.Res. 504, and the cloture motion to the motion to proceed to H.R. 2872.
First Step Act hearing: Tomorrow at 10:00 am, the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing, “Five Years of the First Step Act: Reimagining Rehabilitation and Protecting Public Safety.” As we’ve noted before, the First Step Act has been successful thus far. The Department of Justice has reported a recidivism rate of 12.4 percent for beneficiaries of the 2018 law. Considering the low recidivism rate and the fact that violent crime in 2022 had he fourth lowest rate since 1991, the Committee should be doing more to advance criminal justice reform legislation like the EQUAL Act and the Clean Slate Act. It’s worth noting that six of the Republicans on the Committee voted for the First Step Act when it was passed in December 2018. Those Republicans are Ranking Member Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). Blackburn, who has cozied up to the opponents of criminal justice reform since joining the Senate, was a member of the House when she voted for the First Step Act. Sadly, I won’t be there in person to watch the hearing. I’d planned to attend, but unforeseen circumstances require me to remain at home.
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Deficit watch: The budget deficit for the first quarter of FY 2024 is $509 billion. That’s up from $421 billion at the same point in FY 2023. Revenues jumped by 8 percent compared, including individual and corporate tax receipts. However, outlays were up 12 percent, driven by a 10 percent increase in mandatory spending programs, military outlays, and veterans affairs.
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