Congress Comes Back to a New Landscape, Leadership Elections, and Upcoming Deadlines
Jason Pye - Vice President, Due Process Institute
Point of Order is a (mostly) weekly preview of key congressional activity for those with more than a passing interest in federal policy.
Looking ahead to the 119th Congress: As of right now, 425 House races have been called–216 for Republicans and 209 for Democrats. Ten seats are still undecided. Decision Desk HQ projects that Republicans will keep their majority, with 220 seats to Democrats 215 seats. Obviously, this is an incredibly slim majority, and it’ll shrink by at least one. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will be nominated to serve as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has also been floated as a potential Secretary of Agriculture. Don’t expect too many House Republicans to go to the administration for the first couple of years because of the thin margins. If Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) keeps his job, he’ll still have to cut deals with Democrats on must-pass bills and government funding. Over in the Senate, Republicans will have at least 52 seats. Democrats will have 47 seats. We’re still waiting to see what’s going to happen in Pennsylvania. Expect some Senate Republicans to head to the administration.
Jockeying for leadership posts: The House Republican Conference will hold its leadership elections on Wednesday beginning at 2:30 pm. Not a lot is expected to change, although Stefanik’s nomination will open up the conference chair position. There could be challenges to existing leadership, but the only rumored one we’ve heard is House Republican Policy Chair Gary Palmer (R-AL) could face challenges from Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) and/or Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY). The most pressing question is whether Johnson will keep his spot as Speaker. My guess is yes. The race for Senate Majority Leader is between Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL). This one is going to be really interesting. Trump world is lining up behind Scott. Trump wants a majority leader who will allow recess appointments. Scott has already committed to Trump’s demand. In other news, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) reportedly has the votes to serve as the Chair of the Senate Republican Conference. The conference will meet on Wednesday to vote on its leadership. We may have another newsletter later this week to recap all of this.
And there’s a lot left for Congress to do: Over the next five weeks, Congress will have to fund the government and pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The continuing resolution (CR) passed in September runs through Friday, December 20. We’ve heard that an omnibus is in the works as the last-minute scramble to get legislating done before a new Congress begins. If an omnibus is the route Congress takes, it’ll be a Christmas tree. NDAA is also on the agenda, as well as other “must-pass” bills. We’ll update more on that either later this week or in next week’s newsletter.
Schedule and suspensions in the House: The House returns at 2:00 pm on Tuesday for legislative business. Votes are postponed until 6:30 pm. The House will also be in session on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The last votes for the week are expected no later than 3:00 pm on Friday. Fifteen (15) bills are expected to be considered under the suspension of the rules (listed below). The cost estimates for those bills are here.
H.R. 82, Social Security Fairness Act (Ways and Means Committee)
H.R. 5342, Equal Treatment of Public Servants Act (Ways and Means Committee)
H.R. 9495, Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act (Ways and Means Committee)
H.R. 9597, Federal Acquisition Security Council Improvement Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
H.R. 9592, Federal Register Modernization Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
H.R. 9596, Value Over Costs Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
H.R. 5301, Eliminate Useless Reports Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
H.R. 5658, Vote by Mail Tracking Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 1510, GAO Inspector General Parity Act (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 2274, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 112 Wyoming Street in Shoshoni, Wyoming, as the "Dessie A. Bebout Post Office" (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 2717, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 231 North Franklin Street in Greensburg, Indiana, as the "Brigadier General John T. Wilder Post Office (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 3357, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 5120 Derry Street in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, as the "Hettie Simmons Love Post Office Building" (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 3267, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 410 Dakota Avenue South in Huron, South Dakota, as the "First Lieutenant Thomas Michael Martin Post Office Building" (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 3419, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1765 Camp Hill Bypass in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, as the "John Charles Traub Post Office" (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
S. 2143, To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 320 South 2nd Avenue in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, as the "Staff Sergeant Robb Lura Rolfing Post Office Building" (Oversight and Accountability Committee)
Bills that come to the floor under suspension of the rules require two-thirds of members present and voting for passage. This is the most common way that bills considered by the House come to the floor. Some of these bills may be passed by a voice vote, rather than a roll call vote. Most bills that come to the floor under suspension aren’t widely considered controversial, although leadership may occasionally test a bill under suspension to gauge opposition or sneak a bill through the chamber.
Rule bills: The House Rules Committee will meet on Tuesday at 4:00 pm to markup the rule providing for the consideration of the Harnessing Energy At Thermal Sources Act, H.R. 7409; the Critical Mineral Consistency Act, H.R. 8446; and the FAFSA Deadline Act, H.R. 8932.
Connolly diagnosed with cancer: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) has been diagnosed with esophageal cancer. The prognosis is good. Connolly, who is 74 years old, has served in the House since 2009. He serves on the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Oversight and Reform Committee.
Party divisions in the House: Rep.-elect Erica Carter (D-TX) was elected to fill the remainder of the term of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) and Rep.-elect Tony Wied (R-WI) was elected to fill the remainder of the term of Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), who resigned earlier this year. It’s likely these members-elect will be sworn in this week. Once they’re sworn in, the party divisions in the House will be 221 Republicans and 213 Democrats. The only vacancy is NJ-09 (Pascrell).
House committee schedule: The full House committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Nominees in the Senate: The Senate returns on Tuesday at 3:00 pm to resume consideration of the nomination of April M. Perry to serve as a judge on the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois. A roll call vote on the Perry nomination will begin around 5:30 pm. Expect the Senate to rush through judicial nominations over the five-week lame-duck session. In addition to government funding and NDAA, judicial nominations will be a priority for Senate Democrats.
Party divisions in the Senate: There aren’t any changes to the numbers, but Sen. George Helmy (D-NJ) will resign as soon as Sen.-elect Andy Kim’s (D-NJ) election is certified. That’ll give Kim an edge in seniority for the incoming freshman class. The party divisions will be 51 Democrats (including four independents who caucus with Democrats) and 49 Republicans.
Senate committee schedule: The full Senate committee schedule for the week is here. If you’re interested in watching any of these hearings online, you can find committee websites here.
Final budget deficit for FY 2024: The total budget deficit for FY 2024 was $1.833 trillion, or 6.4 percent of gross domestic product. Receipts were up by 10.8 percent in FY 2024 compared to FY 2023. This was driven predominantly by corporate income taxes (26.3 percent increase) and individual income taxes (11.5 percent increase). Outlays were up by 11.5 percent. Net interest on the public debt saw the largest increase compared to FY 2023, jumping 33.7 percent to $949 billion. Social Security and Medicare saw increases of 7.9 percent and 9.4 percent, or $1.448 trillion and $870 billion.
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